What is core inflation?

Core inflation in Singapore means MAS Core Inflation: consumer price change with accommodation and private road transport taken out. It was 2.0% in July 2026, up from 1.6% in June, against headline inflation of 2.2%.

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Singapore · July 2026 · MAS Core Inflation
2.0%
+0.4 pts
Headline CPI2.2%
Previous1.6%
Gap to headline+0.2 pt
MAS 2026 forecast1.5–2.5%
MAS Core2.0%July 2026
Headline CPI2.2%July 2026
Previous month1.6%June 2026
Core share of basket64.4%6,438 of 10,000 weight points
Excluded2 divisionsaccommodation · private road transport
MAS 2026 forecast1.5–2.5%Core inflation
On this pageWhat it measuresWorked exampleWhat it means for youMisconceptionsRelated termsSources

Key takeaways

  • MAS Core Inflation was 2.0% year on year in July 2026, up from 1.6% in June; headline CPI-All Items inflation was 2.2%.
  • The core measure covers food, electricity and gas, services, and retail and other goods, and leaves out the accommodation and private road transport components of the CPI.
  • Those two components are excluded because they are shaped largely by supply-side administrative policies — COE quotas and the housing stock — and are volatile.
  • Core still covers most of the basket: 6,438 of the CPI’s 10,000 weight points in the 2024-based series.
  • MAS forecasts core inflation of 1.5–2.5% for 2026 and uses it, rather than the headline, as the anchor for the Singapore dollar policy band.
Definition

What MAS strips out, and why

Headline inflation counts everything in the CPI basket. MAS Core Inflation removes two divisions whose prices are set less by demand than by policy: private road transport, where COE premiums dominate, and accommodation, where rents follow the housing stock. What is left is the measure MAS reads for generalised, persistent price pressure.

MAS Core Inflation2.0%Food, electricity and gas, services, retail and other goods. The measure the Monetary Policy Statement forecasts and targets.
CPI-All Items (headline)2.2%The full basket. The two excluded divisions are what separate this figure from the core one.
Gap+0.2 ptAccommodation and private road transport added 0.2 percentage points to the headline in July 2026.

In July 2026 the MAS/MTI release attributed the rise in core inflation to higher inflation for electricity and gas, services and food, while headline inflation rose further on accommodation. Core rose 0.3% month on month; the full index fell 0.2%.

Worked example

Core against headline, month by month

The two measures usually move together; the gap between them is the contribution of the two excluded divisions. The table shows the last six prints.

MonthHeadlineMAS CoreGap
Feb 20261.2%1.4%−0.2 pt
Mar 20261.8%1.7%+0.1 pt
Apr 20261.8%1.4%+0.4 pt
May 20261.8%1.4%+0.4 pt
Jun 20261.9%1.6%+0.3 pt
Jul 20262.2%2.0%+0.2 pt

July 2026 in one line

Headline CPI2.2%
less accommodation and private road transport−0.2 pt
MAS Core Inflation2.0%

The subtraction is illustrative: MAS computes core from the component indices and their weights, not by subtracting one rounded rate from another.

What it means for you

Why a household watches core, not just the headline

Monetary policySORA rate tracker
MAS sets the Singapore dollar policy band against its core forecast. A persistently high core reading is what precedes a tighter band, and a stronger dollar, not a rate hike.
Everyday pricesCost of living calculator
Food, utilities and services are the bulk of a household’s recurring spend. Core inflation is closer to what a renter without a car experiences than the headline is.
Car ownershipCar loan calculator
Private road transport is excluded from core precisely because COE premiums swing it. A car buyer’s own inflation therefore tracks the headline and COE cycle, not core.
RentRental yield calculator
Accommodation sits outside core. When rents accelerate the headline rises while core may not, which is the usual reason the two figures diverge.
Long-range planningInflation calculator
Over a decade the two measures average out close to each other. For restating money across years the headline index is the one to use, because it is the one SingStat publishes as a level.
Common misconceptions

Five things people get wrong

Core inflation excludes food and energy.
That is the US and euro-area convention. MAS Core Inflation keeps food, electricity and gas; it excludes accommodation and private road transport instead.
Core is always lower than headline.
It is lower only when rents and COE premiums are rising faster than the rest of the basket. In months when they fall, core sits above the headline.
Core inflation is what households actually pay.
Households pay the whole basket. Core is the policy measure; the headline is the cost measure.
MAS targets 2% like other central banks.
MAS publishes a forecast range for core inflation each Monetary Policy Statement rather than a fixed numeric target, and steers the exchange rate rather than an interest rate.
Core is a separate survey.
It is computed from the same CPI basket SingStat prices each month, with two divisions removed. The weights, outlets and items are identical.
Sources and reviewChecked against the July 2026 release

Official statistics for general information only. Not financial advice.

Sources: MAS SingStat

This page is provided for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. All figures and worked examples are estimates for illustrative purposes, are subject to change, and do not reflect any individual’s circumstances. Always refer to MAS and SingStat and seek independent professional advice before making any financial decisions.